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Biden's Lead Widens After June Presidential Debate
Key Points
- After June's presidential debate, Biden's lead widened.
- Biden ended his campaign down three points nationally and four or more points in key swing states.
- The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report show Biden with a narrow lead.
- 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model shows Biden with a 75% chance of winning.
What's the Latest?
After the June presidential debate, Biden's lead widened. A poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post found that Biden led Trump by 10 points among registered voters, up from 6 points in May.
The poll also found that Biden's lead among independents increased from 12 points to 18 points.
The widening lead is likely due to several factors, including Biden's strong performance in the debate and Trump's continued unpopularity.
Electoral College Outlook
The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report show Biden with a narrow lead.
Cook Political Report rates 11 states as toss-ups, meaning they could go either way in the election.
Biden is currently leading in the polls in most of the toss-up states, but Trump is within striking distance in several of them.
538's Forecast
538's 2024 presidential election forecast model shows Biden with a 75% chance of winning.
The model takes into account a variety of factors, including polls, economic data, and historical trends.
538's forecast is based on the assumption that the election will be held on November 5, 2024.